A warmer, wetter, wilder future?

Scotland's climate has changed, is changing and will continue to change. This is as true for our uplands and moorlands as it is for other areas. While it is likely that there will be regional variation in these changes, the general pattern is the same; warmer, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters.

Sea levels are also likely to rise. At first sight this may not seem to be relevant to our uplands and moorlands, but if land for agriculture and housing is lost around the coast then it is almost inevitable that there will be pressure to expand these land uses into the moorland edge and foothills.

For many habitats and species it may 'simply' be a case of moving higher up the hills to a climate zone that suits there needs. This of course assumes that there are no major obstacles in the way. However, for those habitats and species already at the tops of our mountains, for example those associated with late-lie snow beds, there is nowhere to go, except possibly northwards but that would require very long journeys and few are likely to be successful.

Of course, northward travel also implies that we may get immigration of species from further south - with unknown implications for those already here.

Changing weather patterns have implications beyond the suitability of certain areas for certain species. Wetter winters may result in more landslides, including peat slides, on unstable ground. They may also result in damage to tracks and paths, making access to the hills more difficult. Drier summers may increase the risk of wildfire across our moors.

Warmer, wetter winters may also result in an increase in pest species, such as heather beetle, which would previously have been killed off by hard frosts.

In other words, climate change will bring change to the uplands. We still don't know exactly what these changes will be, or how severe they will be. We do, however, know what is more, or less, likely.  We cannot prevent all of these changes from happening, but can try to ensure that our hills and moors are managed in such a way as to make them sufficiently robust to absorb these changes and to enable species to move to appropriate areas.