How climate change will affect geodiversity

Climate change projections suggest that there are likely to be more landslides and other slope failures, especially where slopes are prone to waterlogging during more intense or prolonged rainfall, and there may be more and bigger floods. Some of the more far-reaching effects of climate change are likely to be at the coast. The latest projections from UKCP09 show net regional sea-level rise of 7mm/yr in Scotland in the next few decades, outstripping rates seen in the last few thousand years. The effects are likely to be exacerbated by continued coastal sediment scarcity and possibly enhanced storminess.

Other impacts may include:

• changes in soil biochemical processes (e.g. degradation of pollutants and carbon sequestration), leading to increased release of greenhouse gases and loss of carbon - this is of particular concern since Scotland's soils contain the majority of the UK soil carbon stock;
• accelerated soil erosion in both arable and upland environments, especially during windy or very wet conditions, as a result of land use changes and increased recreation pressures;
• greater geomorphological heterogeneity (variety of geomorphological processes) and changes in landscape character (e.g. more bare slopes as a result of accelerated erosion);
• changes in the water and sediment discharges in rivers, resulting in readjustments in channel positions that have been stable in living memory;
• changed distributions of coastal and river landforms in response to altered patterns of erosion and deposition - this could cause the notified scientific interests to shift out of existing designated sites; increased demand for hazard mitigation, such as flood protection and coast protection; and
• decreased periglacial activity on some mountains, but more frequent debris flows and landslips on hillsides, some disrupting transport routes.

Climate change may have both negative and positive impacts on rocks exposures and landforms. Rock and sediment exposures could be sealed behind coast defences and river-bank protection. Unique exposures may be lost through erosion, or access prevented through submergence or burial because of changes in sedimentation or landslides. Conversely, erosion may reveal new exposures that replace existing sites or reveal new interests. Changes in land use, arising from increased demands for food and energy crops, could also restrict access to rock exposures or obscure the visibility of landforms.